By Eric J. Savitz and Siobhan Aalders
Welcome to the era of 13-digit market cap IPOs.
In an extraordinary turn of events, 2026 is poised to be a year of the first three initial public offerings to make their debuts with valuations north of $1 trillion. SpaceX debuted at close to $2 trillion, and is now valued at $1.5 trillion, still among the 10 largest companies in the world by market capitalization. The artificial intelligence software leaders OpenAI and Anthropic both recently filed confidentially with the SEC for IPOs of their own, and both are widely expected to launch at valuations above $1 trillion.
The astonishing valuations – there are only 14 public companies with market caps above $1 trillion – have outshined the details of the companies’ underlying fundamentals. And that phenomenon poses communications challenges for not only these companies, but for any early-stage companies contemplating a high-profile IPO.
For most companies, the goal of pre-IPO communications is straightforward. Build awareness. Generate interest. Help investors understand the business and its growth potential. Encourage optimism about opportunity, rather than wealth creation. For these issuers, the IPO is at least in part a marketing opportunity, a moment to establish legitimacy and relevancy.
However, for companies entering the public markets with pre-established, high-profile visibility, and massive private market valuations, the challenge shifts. For companies like the trillion-dollar trio, the issue isn’t attracting attention – they already get plenty. Rather, the task for these giants is to keep the markets and the media focused on business fundamentals, and not just the surrounding market-cap hype.
For investors, the challenge of buying into a newly public company with a trillion-dollar plus valuation is how to assess the upside. With a $1.5 trillion market cap, SpaceX is already one of the most valuable companies in the world. There is currently just one company – Nvidia – with a valuation above $5 trillion. To justify the valuation of SpaceX above $1 trillion, you have to anticipate success for some of the company’s long-shot bets, like data centers in the sky and a base on Mars. If none of those megabets pays off, the stock could move dramatically lower – and still rank among the most valued companies on Earth.
There are many examples of IPOs that struggled to find traction in the early going, and with the stock down 15% since its June initial offering, SpaceX has now joined their ranks.
Facebook (now Meta) shares stumbled after the social networking company’s 2012 IPO, losing about half their value in a few months amid questions about the company’s then-lackluster mobile strategy. Rivian went public in 2021 with a valuation of about $66 billion, touching $100 billion early on, but couldn’t sustain early enthusiasm, amid questions about the EV company’s production targets, profitability, and execution. Rivian’s valuation is now $22 billion. Groupon’s IPO had a nice launch in 2011, but lost 80% of its value in a couple of months. Uber fell 8% on its 2019 IPO day. In 2021, Robinhood slumped 8% on day one.
As the Wall Street Journal recently reported, the average three-year return for IPOs purchased at the end of the first day of trading is 21% below the broad market. The challenges are manifold, ranging from unfulfilled early optimism about the outlook to a dramatic increase in the number of free-trading shares after lock-up agreements expire for early investors. SpaceX has lately come under pressure in part from a huge lock-up expiration that more than doubled the number of free-standing shares. Companies that looked almost invincible as private firms can sometimes wilt under the bright lights of quarterly reporting and public-market accountability – SpaceX had strong results in its first quarter as a public company, but unnerved the markets with its heavy spending on IT infrastructure for its AI business.
There are lessons here for both issuers and their communications advisers.
Management teams should resist the temptation to participate in conversations about valuation. That’s the market’s job. Stay focused on the business. Ultimately, performance matters. Not perception. Ahead of the IPO, you can talk to employees, shareholders, customers and others about market opportunity, customer demand, product development, execution, and growth. Finding the right stock price is a job for Mr. Market.
On IPO day, the pressure increases to talk about price and valuation. But avoid the temptation.
Whether a stock doubles on its first day of trading or finishes below its offering price, the message should be the same. A successful IPO is not the destination. It’s the beginning of a much longer journey as a public company.
That journey will inevitably include challenges. Every company eventually encounters a difficult quarter, a missed forecast, or an unexpected market shift. The organizations that navigate those moments most effectively with investors and the media are often the ones that spent years building credibility before they needed it.
Investors will be far more patient with companies that have demonstrated consistency, transparency, and a clear understanding of their business, than those obsessing over their own stock price.
Experienced communications counsel can be invaluable during the transition to the public market. Founders spend years focused on product development, operations, and growth. Public-company communications introduce new challenges: managing expectations, navigating disclosure requirements, communicating clearly, confidently and consistently, and maintaining credibility under intense scrutiny.
The 13-digit IPOs are historic in size and visibility, but the underlying lessons for issuers apply far more broadly. In the long run, investors reward execution, not puffery and self-promotion.
The companies that successfully navigate the transition to public ownership are usually not the ones that generate the most excitement on IPO day. They are the ones that continue communicating with clarity and consistency, deliver on the expectations they have set, and build credibility over time, long after the opening bell.
Eric Savitz is a veteran technology and financial markets journalist and communications advisor who spent nearly 25 years at Barron’s and has also held senior roles at Forbes and Brunswick Group.
Siobhan Aalders, Managing Director at RooneyPartners, is a global communications strategist with more than two decades of experience, most notably leading global communications at Fiverr and Shutterstock and before that in senior roles at Ogilvy PR.